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HomePaperA Biodiversity Stress Test of the Financial System

A Biodiversity Stress Test of the Financial System

10 June 2025
Authors: Sophia Arlt, Tobias Berg, Xander Hut and Daniel Streitz
Presenter: Sophia Arlt
Abstract:

This paper provides the first rigorous assessment of the financial sectors’ resilience to biodiversity transition risk. We provide “bottom-up” stress tests using comprehensive euro-area credit registry data and a market-based “top-down” stress test based on banks’ stock return sensitivities to biodiversity risk. Industries exposed to biodiversity transition risk account for approximately 15% of total bank credit to non-financial firms, compared to about 25% for climate-exposed industries. Stress test scenarios indicate that even under severe conditions, additional losses in biodiversity-exposed industries would constitute only 0.3 to 0.5% of the financial system’s corporate loan portfolio. A top-down market-based approach yields similar results with capital shortfalls following a biodiversity shock peaking at 0.1% of banks’ assets. Our evidence indicates that financial stability concerns related to biodiversity transition risk are moderate. Therefore, they should not hinder good biodiversity policy

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